Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2024 Dec 22 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 22-Dec 24 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels).
| Dec 22 | Dec 23 | Dec 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03UT | 2.67 | 2.33 | 2.67 |
| 03-06UT | 3.33 | 2.67 | 2.00 |
| 06-09UT | 3.67 | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| 09-12UT | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| 12-15UT | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| 15-18UT | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| 18-21UT | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| 21-00UT | 2.00 | 2.67 | 2.67 |
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
| Dec 22 | Dec 23 | Dec 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 or greater | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 21 2024 0038 UTC.
| Dec 22 | Dec 23 | Dec 24 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1-R2 | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| R3 or greater | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are likely, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 22-24 Dec.
Space Weather Overview
Credits
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA)
Powered by Space Weather PHP script by Mike Challis of Long Beach Weather.
Additions by Ken True of Saratoga Weather and Jerry Wilkins of Southeast Lincoln Weather.