Product: 3-Day Forecast
- Issued: 2026 Feb 02 0140 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 02-Feb 04 2026 is 1.67 (below NOAA Scale levels).
| Feb 02 | Feb 03 | Feb 04 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00-03UT | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
| 03-06UT | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| 06-09UT | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| 09-12UT | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| 12-15UT | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| 15-18UT | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| 18-21UT | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 21-00UT | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
| Feb 02 | Feb 03 | Feb 04 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 or greater | 65% | 50% | 10% |
Rationale: Solar radiation storming is likely to exceed the S1 (Minor) levels on 02 Feb with a chance on 03 Feb due to the recent X8.1 flare from Region 4366 at 01/2357 UTC.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Feb 01 2026 1233 UTC.
| Feb 02 | Feb 03 | Feb 04 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1-R2 | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| R3 or greater | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Rationale: R2 radio blackouts are expected. Active region 4366 is expected to produce more flare activity over the next three days, with a chance for an R3 or greater event.
Space Weather Overview
Credits
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center
Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)
SOHO (ESA & NASA)
Powered by Space Weather PHP script by Mike Challis of Long Beach Weather.
Additions by Ken True of Saratoga Weather and Jerry Wilkins of Southeast Lincoln Weather.