Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2021 Oct 18 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 18-Oct 20 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 18-Oct 20 2021
Oct 18Oct 19Oct 20
00-03UT442
03-06UT332
06-09UT222
09-12UT122
12-15UT332
15-18UT332
18-21UT322
21-00UT432

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 18-Oct 20 2021
Oct 18Oct 19Oct 20
S1 or greater1%1%1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 18-Oct 20 2021
Oct 18Oct 19Oct 20
R1-R21%1%1%
R3 or greater1%1%1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Space Weather Overview

overview
Credits

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center   Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)   SOHO (ESA & NASA)

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