Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2020 Nov 23 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 23-Nov 25 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 23-Nov 25 2020
Nov 23Nov 24Nov 25
00-03UT233
03-06UT322
06-09UT222
09-12UT222
12-15UT222
15-18UT221
18-21UT224
21-00UT334

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 23-Nov 25 2020
Nov 23Nov 24Nov 25
S1 or greater1%1%1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 23-Nov 25 2020
Nov 23Nov 24Nov 25
R1-R215%15%15%
R3 or greater1%1%1%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts over 23-25 Nov due to flare potential from Regions 2785 and 2786.

Credits

Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center   Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR)   SOHO (ESA & NASA)

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